March 2025

Released April 10, 2025


Consumer Price Index



From February 2025 to March 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was -0.05 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.44 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -2.39 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.06 percent.


From March 2024 to March 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.39 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.96 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -3.25 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 2.79 percent.


Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index

Mar 2025 Feb 2025 M/M difference Mar 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index -0.05% 0.22% -0.27pp 0.35% -0.40pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.06% 0.23% -0.17pp 0.38% -0.32pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.44% 0.16% 0.28pp 0.06% 0.38pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -2.39% 0.20% -2.59pp 0.52% -2.91pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.39% 2.82% -0.43pp 3.48% -1.09pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.79% 3.12% -0.33pp 3.80% -1.01pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.96% 2.61% 0.35pp 2.24% 0.72pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -3.25% -0.17% -3.08pp 2.12% -5.37pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.03% -0.05% 0.08pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.26% 0.06% 0.20pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.49% 2.39% 0.10pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.99% 2.79% 0.20pp


Real earnings


From February 2025 to March 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Real Earnings Indicators

Mar 2025 Feb 2025 M/M difference Mar 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.27% 0.00% 0.27pp 0.00% 0.27pp
Year-over-year 1.35% 1.08% 0.27pp 0.73% 0.62pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.30% 0.30% 0.00pp 0.32% -0.02pp
Year-over-year 0.81% 0.83% -0.02pp 0.69% 0.12pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.20% 0.20% 0.00pp 0.10% 0.10pp
Year-over-year 1.64% 1.54% 0.10pp 0.72% 0.92pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.81% 0.18% 0.63pp 0.33% 0.48pp
Year-over-year 1.63% 1.15% 0.48pp 0.66% 0.97pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Apr 11 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2025 U.S. Treasury
Apr 18 10:00 AM State Employment Update, March 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 30 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Advance Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Apr 30 10:00 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, March 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 02 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, April 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 06 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, May 2025 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.